Friday, June 18, 2010

Dan Jones Polls Utah's Two Hottest Political Races: Tim Bridgewater Leads Mike Lee By 9 Points, While Jim Matheson Leads Claudia Wright By 19 Points

With only four days to go before the June 22nd Utah primaries, pollster Dan Jones has finally decided to test the political winds in Utah's two hottest political races. And his data indicates that Democrat Jim Matheson will earn the right to face Republican Morgan Philpot and others in the U.S. House District 2 race, while Tim Bridgewater is the favorite to face Democrat Sam Granato and others in the U.S. Senate race.

From this KSL Channel 5 story and this Deseret News story, we get the Senate numbers, obtained by polling 581 "active" voters between June 12-17:

-- Tim Bridgewater: 42 percent
-- Mike Lee: 33 percent
-- Other: 25 percent

The "other" or undecided vote could prove to be a real wild card, as a poll conducted by Wilson Research Strategies on June 8th indicated 39 percent for Lee, 30 percent for Bridgewater, and 31 percent Undecided. Both pollsters are considered reliable, which means it would seem like there's a trend towards Bridgewater. Dan Jones insists that Bridgewater had a wider lead when polling first started on June 12th, but Lee has since gained ground. The race between the two has continued to grow more contentious, with both candidates in attack mode during their June 17th appearance on KSL Newsradio Doug Wright's show.

Neither candidate is attaching much significance to this poll. Recently, Mike Lee picked up the endorsement of Ron Paul, and just today, also picked up the endorsement of 2nd House District Republican challenger Morgan Philpot. On the other hand, Bridgewater has just picked up a more powerful endorsement, that of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The business community appears more comfortable with Bridgewater because of his enterpreneurial background.

But also attracting Dan Jones' interest is the 2nd District Democratic race. His poll of 409 "active" voters, conducted June 12-17, shows the following numbers:

-- Jim Matheson: 52 percent
-- Claudia Wright: 33 percent
-- Other: 15 percent

Likewise in this race, neither candidate is attaching much significance to this poll. But considering that at the May 8th convention, Matheson only won by 55-45 percent, it represents an improvement in his position. Matheson believes his vote against Obamacare hurt him initially when it was so close to the state convention, but he said he wouldn't want to repeal the new health care law. In fact, to co-opt Wright and blunt the progressive quest to use her to hijack the nomination, he recently voted against repealing the same health care bill that he voted against in the first place.

On a taping of KSL's Sunday edition with Bruce Lindsay, the differences between Matheson and Wright quickly surfaced. Claudia Wright stated, "I believe that in fact over the past decade, my opponent has moved consistently to the right. That was made very evident on the mass meetings March 23rd when his representatives across the state were heckled and booed."

In response, Jim Matheson shot back, "One thing I've always been proud of in my career in public service is what I've always told people, and that is, I am what I am. I run on the politics and values and an approach that I learned from my mom and dad. I told people, ‘You shouldn't expect to agree with me on every issue, but you should expect that I take a thoughtful and common-sense approach to every issue." The three biggest differences between the two are on health care, immigration, and the BP oil spill.


Utah said...

Tim Bridgewater

I have watched Tim for over a year, and I believe he is the best US Senate candidate in the primary. Tim's attitude and methods and his actions have impressed me. Words alone are not enough.

I was surprised and appalled at two "comparison" flyers printed since the convention by the Lee camp. (Has their name on it any everything) Not only were the ads of questionable accuracy, they totally contradict what Lee has been saying he would do and say during his campaign.

Lee also seems to be very quiet lately on the recent attack radio ads by Common Sense Issues, who went after Mitt Romney in favor of Huckabee with push polling, Where is his outrage over the deceptive ads Freedomworks and Jim DeMint are running, or are they getting their message from Lee's camp?

That those that are endorsing Lee are trying to smear Bridgewater with and use for fundraising for Lee, the "temple" flyer is pretty low.

The group that went after Lee prior to convention also went after Bridgewater with "polling" as well.

The fact that Cherilyn Eagar endorsed Tim Bridgewater, and Bob Bennett endorsed Bridgewater, in my mind, has more to do with how the Bridgewater campaign treated those two campaigns with greater respect than Eagar and Bennett agreeing with Bridgewater on issues.

Bridgewater has my vote.

Deseret Dawg said...

The flap over Bob Lonsberry is also driving more support towards Tim Bridgewater. I'm currently reading about the circumstances of Bob Lonsberry's sudden "dismissal" from his radio show shortly after he posted an endorsement of Bridgewater, and the timing is way too auspicious. I commend Bridgewater for pulling his advertising from that radio station. Lonsberry wrote an extremely powerful endorsement of Bridgewater dated June 15th; go HERE and scroll down to it if you want to read it.

plaidspolitics said...

Lonsberry's claim that he was fired the day after endorsing Tim is false. A lie. Look at his OWN blog - dated May 5th, where he endorsed Tim. Here is the link to Lonsberry endorsing Tim back on May 5th - Listen to Lonsberry in a robocall on June 19th - You can hear the call from Lonsberry yourself (just days ago in JUNE) where the claim is made -

Lonsberry was NOT fired until June (NOT a day after the endorsement, which would have been May 6th!).

Also, a basic principle for reason is that correlation does not imply causation. You can connect all sorts of things that have absolutely no relationship, but does that not make them actually related.