Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Mason-Dixon Poll And Dan Jones Poll Show Utah Congressional Candidates Rob Bishop, Jim Matheson, And Jason Chaffetz Firmly In Command

Update: I have updated and retitled this post to include an October 31st story from the Deseret News about the results of an October 24-30 Dan Jones poll. Since the Dan Jones poll results are similar, they don't warrant a separate post. The DN story also included this graphic.

On October 29th, 2008, the Salt Lake Tribune reported the results of a Mason-Dixon poll taken of 400 likely voters in each of Utah's three Congressional districts from October 23-25, and the conclusion is that you could probably call off the election, although the gaps have narrowed slightly from the previous Dan Jones poll released in early September.

No, nobody is seriously considering calling off the election, obviously, but the results seem to be set. We could almost call the winners early. One interesting aspect to this poll - it provides the secondary candidates with some feedback on their support. I also include links to any of the candidates' Deseret News candidate surveys which are available.

Utah House District One:

- Rob Bishop (R): 54 percent
- Morgan Bowen (D): 29 percent
- Joseph Geddes Buchman (Lib): 4 percent
- Kirk D. Pearson (Con): 2 percent
- Undecided: 11 percent

The new Dan Jones poll shows Rob Bishop leading Morgan Bowen 60 percent to 27 percent. The associated DN graphic shows Buchman with 12 percent, which has not been verified.

Bishop was endorsed by the Salt Lake Tribune. Bishop's Deseret News candidate survey HERE. Some pundits think Bishop should be doing better, but I sure wouldn't be complaining about a 25-point lead. But concerns about Bishop's ties with Energy Solutions have slightly eroded his lead. Bishop apparently believes that since Utah already is a repository for nuclear waste, that it can handle some more. But turning western Utah into an international dumping ground for the world's nuclear waste would be intolerable. Kudos to Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. for throwing up a stop sign.

Utah House District Two:

- Jim Matheson (D): 57 percent
- Bill Dew (R): 30 percent
- Mathew Arndt (Lib): 3 percent
- Dennis Ray Emery (Con): 2 percent
- Undecided: 8 percent

The new Dan Jones poll shows Jim Matheson leading Bill Dew 65 percent to 26 percent.

Matheson was endorsed by the Salt Lake Tribune. Matheson's Deseret News candidate survey HERE, Dew's candidate survey HERE. The same pundits are also squawking because Matheson isn't doing better. The Republican state chairman thinks Matheson should be doing better because he's had four terms to solidify his base, but a University of Utah professor says that Matheson is still constrained somewhat by the Republican base. His Democratic strength lies in Salt Lake City.

Utah House District Three:

- Jason Chaffetz (R): 57 percent
- Bennion Spencer (D): 22 percent
- Jim Noorlander (Con): 4 percent
- Undecided: 17 percent

The new Dan Jones poll shows Jason Chaffetz leading Bennion Spencer 58 percent to 24 percent.

Spencer was endorsed by the Salt Lake Tribune. Spencer's Deseret News candidate survey HERE, Chaffetz' candidate survey HERE, and Noorlander's candidate survey HERE. A heck of a lot of undecideds this late in the game. I'll bet most of them are Democrats or liberals who would prefer someone to the left of Bennion Spencer, but who will eventually vote for him nonetheless. It won't help Spencer, of course, but will narrow the final gap. Face facts, people; Jason Chaffetz has captured the hearts of Third District voters with his passion and commitment. People hunger for a candidate who espouses unequivocal values, and Chaffetz, more than anyone else, fills the bill. One could almost call him a conservative version of Rocky Anderson; he has that same fire in his belly. He'll make a great Congressman.

Oh, and Mason-Dixon also took a Presidential poll. No big surprise:

- John McCain: 55 percent
- Barack Obama: 32 percent
- Other: 4 percent
- Undecided: 9 percent

Barack Obama's message doesn't resonate well in a free market-oriented state like Utah.

1 comment:

stephen merino said...

You said:

Barack Obama's message doesn't resonate well in a free market-oriented state like Utah.

Are you telling it has nothing to do with the large Mormon population and the resultant deep social conservatism and de-facto Mormon alignment with the Republican Party?