Thursday, January 31, 2008

It Looks Grim For Mitt Romney On February 5th, But John McCain Will Not Mathematically Clinch The Republican Nomination On That Day


Would you trust this man with nukes???

As February 5th, 2008 approaches, the situation appears grim for Mitt Romney. John McCain not only got a big shot in the arm by his winner-take-all victory in Florida, but many February 5th states conducting polls report that John McCain is either leading by a wide margin, or is virtually tied with someone else. And in the latter case, that someone else is NOT Romney.

In addition, the McCain campaign got an extra psychological boost not only from Rudy Giuliani's withdrawal, but his subsequent endorsement of McCain. According to Haaretz, Giuliani and McCain both are big-time stooges for Israel, while Romney is more balanced. So it was probably more natural for Giuliani to endorse McCain. McCain also just landed the endorsement of California's celebrity governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. One might get the impression that all the stars are lined up against Mitt Romney. Many pundits believe that McCain can actually clinch the Republican nomination on Super Tuesday.

So I decided to find out if this was mathematically possible. Currently, according to RealClearPolitics, McCain has 93 delegates. He needs 1,191 to clinch the nomination. So I added up the total number of delegates available in the upcoming 22 states (Maine on February 1st, the rest on February 5th), which results in a sum of 1,102 delegates from those 22 states. Add in the 93 delegates already accounted for, and in a worst-case scenario where McCain wins all delegates in all 22 states, he would have 1,195 delegates. Technically, John McCain could indeed clinch the nomination mathematically on February 5th.

But will he?

The answer is no. And there are several reasons:

(1). Not all the states up for grabs are winner-take-all states. In the proportional states, Romney (and the other two) will get enough proportional delegates to deny McCain a mathematical clinch.

(2). Several states are already known not to be McCain Country. McCain will not win in Alaska, Utah, or Arkansas, although no official scientific polls are yet available from those states. The bulk of Alaska's delegates will go to Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee, with smaller totals for Romney and McCain. McCain is an anathema in Alaska because he opposes opening up ANWR. Huckabee will win in Arkansas as the favorite son candidate. And Utah is a winner-take-all state; despite the fact that Governor Jon Hunstman Jr. has endorsed McCain, Utah remains in Romney's back pocket, with the chance of Ron Paul finishing second. And in looking at the numbers presented below, Romney owns Colorado and Massachusetts as well.

Stopping John McCain is the most important task for American patriots right now.

Utah alone can stop the McCain juggernaut on February 5th.

Are Utah Republicans up to the task?

Here are the latest poll numbers, obtained through RealClearPolitics. Where available, I present the RCP Composite average, which has been an accurate barometer of election performance. Otherwise, I present the result of the latest single poll. Only 14 of the 22 Super Tuesday states have current polling data. When a "W" follows the number of delegates, that indicates a "winner-take-all" state.

California, 173 delegates. RCP Composite: McCain 32.5, Romney 24.2. New Rasmussen poll just in shows Romney closing the gap to four percentage points
New York, 101W delegates. RCP Composite: McCain 31.7, Romney 13.7
Georgia, 72 delegates. RCP Composite: Huckabee 29.7, McCain 24.0, Romney 18.0
Illinois, 70 delegates. Rasmussen single poll: McCain 34, Romney 26, Huckabee 16, Paul 10
Missouri, 58W delegates. Rasmussen single poll: Huckabee 27, McCain 26, Romney 18
Tennessee, 55 delegates. InsiderAdvantage single poll: McCain 33, Huckabee 25, Romney 18, Paul 9
New Jersey, 52W delegates. RCP Composite: McCain 29.0, Romney 11.0, Huckabee 10.0
Alabama, 48 delegates. RCP Composite: McCain 27.7, Huckabee 26.3, Romney 12.7
Minnesota, 41 delegates. Minnesota Public Radio: McCain 41, Huckabee 22, Romney 17
Colorado, 46 delegates. Denver Post single poll: Romney 43, McCain 24, Huckabee 17
Arizona, 53W delegates. Behavior Research Center single poll: McCain 40, Romney 23
Massachusetts, 43 delegates. SurveyUSA single poll: Romney 57, McCain 34
Oklahoma, 41 delegates. SurveyUSA single poll: McCain 37, Huckabee 28, Romney 19
Connecticut, 30W delegates. Rasmussen single poll: McCain 42, Romney 26

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